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Four scenarios Adjustment of direct payments scenario In late 2011 the European Commission, after lengthy discussions with various stake holders, outlined three possible scenarios of CAP reform. The first of these envisioned an incremental adjustment of the CAP. Reforms in this scenario would be pursued with the goal to regain public confidence without jeopardizing farmers’ welfare. In the European Commission’s vision, this would entail a moderate increase in the Rural Development funding at the expense of direct payments. Direct payments themselves, however, would be kept as the principal means of income support. They would be justified publically on the grounds of providing “basic environmental public goods” (The Commission 2011, 40). However, the Commissions seems to consider several options of redistribution of direct payments’ envelopes between the Member States. Based on the past experience from reforms, this alone is likely to cause disputes in the Council and possibly even block any ambitious ‘adjustment’ scenario reform. Concrete proposals how to redistribute direct aid included (1) an EU wide flat rate system of direct payments, (2) a so-called ‘pragmatic approach’ which would take into account political realities of the Community level negotiations and redistribute direct payments only in a limited manner to avoid major disruptions to existing levels and at the same time enforce a minimum level of per hectare (ha) payment based on a share of the EU average. This seems a likely reform scenario because, as can be seen from figure 11 below, with the exception of Romania, all other member states with very per ha direct payments are small. Therefore, expenditure redistribution needed to bring them to 85% of the EU27 average is relatively small and larger beneficiary countries such as France and Italy might be willing to consent to a small reduction in their envelope in order to save the face of the CAP, especially when threatened with alternative, more ambitious reforms. 55