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Table 2: Four scenarios of the CAP’s future reform Future scenario Pillar I Pillar II Likelihood Market Direct Payments Rural of the instruments Development scenario Adjustment Streamlining Use of one or Small raise in Most likely. scenario and combination of 1) budget and no (maintaining of simplification EU wide flat rate redistribution current farm of currently system 2) between member support levels) used ‘objective states compared instruments. criteria’ 3) to current ‘pragmatic situation approach’ Integration Increasing the Redistribution, Funding kept on Unlikely. (better targeting collective capping and current level. of aid measures bargaining ‘greening’ Redistribution and ‘greening’) power of based on farmers. environmental and climate crisis concerns Re-focus Abolished. Progressively Funds freed by Very (limiting the phased out Pillar I unlikely. scope of CAP transferred to interventions to Rural environmental Development. aspects) Redistribution based on environmental and climate crisis concerns Radical Change Abolished. Replaced by bond Re-nationalized Least (abolishing rents scheme likely. and devolution responsibilities based on the principle of subsidiarity) 64